Count Dracula, Throat Slashing & Midwestern Boys: A Preview of the Payton Jordan 5k


KEVIN LIAO: The Payton Jordan meet at Stanford is always filled with a bevy of hot distance running action, and no race in this year’s edition of the meet is more loaded than the men’s 5000 meters. I’ll just throw some names out there — Centro, Lomong, Jager, Derrick, Hill, True, Estrada, Bumbalough, Heath, and many more.

Jon, where do we even start?

JON GUGALA: Should we just DQ all the Schumacher and Brooks athletes right now? That would cut down on time.

LIAO: Please keep Max Siegel et al. away from Palo Alto.

The real question is whether Lopez can count the laps correctly this time. I heard Schumacher hired Count Dracula from Sesame Street as a strategic advisor.

Count-Sesame-Street

One lap to go, Lopez.

GUGALA: OK, so Ben True almost (almost) beat Dejen Gebremeskel at the BAA 5K. So he’s fit.

LIAO: He’ the only one of the bunch who’s proven fitness this spring. I just can’t make him the favorite though. Lomong has made so many World/Olympic teams for me to think he’s not going to win this one.

An aside on True — with just how loaded the U.S. is in the 5k and to some extent 10k, is True gonna be one of those guys who’s a perennial fourth placer at the trials? I just don’t see him beating the likes of Lagat, Rupp, Lomong, or Derrick to make a team.

GUGALA: I don’t see Lagat at the trials.

LIAO: Seriously? The dude just won a silver medal indoors and still whoops Rupp every time they race. Why wouldn’t he go two more years?

The same goes for Meb. Both guys have shown age hasn’t affected their performance much, if at all. Plus there’s that dangling carrot of a big shoe contract bonus for making an Olympic team.

GUGALA: Look, I’m arguing straight biological laws. Yes, they’re present now, and that’s amazing. What are the odds for two more years, to be as good? Lagat’s already been bested by Rupp, World Indoors not withstanding. The harvest is coming.

LIAO: Fair enough. I’m not one to argue against science, but good ol’ Bernie has bested Rupp every time before and after that 2012 Trials 5k.

GUGALA: Schumacher’s boys are to be reckoned with in this race.

Lopez Lomong is just one of those bastards that doesn’t die. Like Meb or Lagat. And like those two guys, you count them out and then they win Boston. So don’t count Lomong out? You should probably count him out in this field, which is exactly why you shouldn’t count him out.

Bumby’s got a chip on his shoulder because of USA Indoors. That’s very good.

Derrick and Jager are both healthy, and you can’t think they’re both not thinking sub-13 this year. This summer. That’s happening. And what happens after that? We got a good old-fashioned rivalry lit with the NOP again. And you know how much Salazar likes a confrontation.

LIAO: You’re spot on about Jager and Derrick. It’s sub-13 or bust this year. Probably have to throw Ryan Hill in there as well given what he did indoors. With his finishing speed and how tactical 5k championship races are (other reason why I think Lagat makes the team for Rio), gotta think he’ll be a World/Olympic team member for many years to come.

While we’re on the subject of Team Schumacher, WHERE IS GERMAN??

GUGALA: The hospital? He’s delicate, man.

LIAO: Too soon?

GUGALA: Nah.

What the hell is going on with Hassan Mead? Him and Blankenship are both out of The U, but he’s not had the best post-collegiate transition, i.e. improvement. Although he did step on Rupp’s spike at USA’s last year. That was pretty funny.

LIAO: Last year was his first year as a pro and he ran 13:11. Not bad if you ask me. Sure, he got dropped early in that weird U.S. champs 5k in Des Moines but certainly not time to panic.

GUGALA: Fair. I’ve just got a thing for Minnesota boys. Midwesterners. Trustworthy. It’s why I like Derrick.

LIAO: Given the bleak state of U.S. men’s marathoning, do you think Derrick would be wise to give the marathon a shot prior to 2016?

Given the risks of unsuccessful marathon attempts (see: Tim Nelson and Bobby Curtis who’ve never seen the same), I’d say he’s better off sticking to the track where he’s a near lock to make the next few 10k teams.

GUGALA: Man, I don’t know on this one. Personally, I love the sport of the marathon. It’s great. So do I want Derrick into the marathon earlier? Yes. Should a lot more guys be going straight into the marathon from the college age, a la Wanjiru? Absolutely. But Derrick already called out my co-writer Ray on his “(barely) implicit assumption is that I’m an idiot who doesn’t know what’s best for me.” Let him stay on the track if his desire’s there. Fine. But don’t wait too long. (Derrick did concede later, however, that “odds are I am an idiot.”)

LIAO: Gotta love the sassiness.

Before we wrap up, gotta address how Centro plays into this race. His 5k PR is 13:47.73 from the 2010 Stanford Invite. Other than Jerry’s boys messing with him (and Centro for real throat-slashing someone), I have a hard time seeing him hang in there with these pure long distance guys.

centro-throat-slash-o

GUGALA: Centro is super green when it comes to the 5000m. And sure, you don’t know how he’s going to hang with Jerry’s kids and their Badger mile volume. But I’ve just got to think back to David Torrence tangling with Lomong in the 5000m in 2012. Torrence, debuting, was so fresh he lost count of the laps (as did Lomong). Result? 13:16. And so the way I look at it, it’s like basic math: “Torrence is really good, but Centro is better, so if Torrence ran 13:16, then Centro should run . . .” Should be a good race.

LIAO: Okay, let’s hear your top three and winning time. I’m going 1. Lomong FTW in 13:12, 2. Hill, 3. True.

GUGALA: You’re high. 1. Centro, kicking in the last 400 in 55 FTW, 13:05, 2. Derrick, 3. Jager, 4. True, perpetual bridesmaid.

LIAO: The guy from Santa Cruz is saying I’m high?

GUGALA: The guy from Nashville with the cowboy boots is saying he’s gonna kick your ass in this prediction contest.

LIAO: We shall see…

Follow Jon Gugala’s thoughts on the world of running on Twitter @JonGugala. Follow Kevin Liao on Twitter @RunLiao, where he will be blasting out his frequently misinformed thoughts live from Payton Jordan on Sunday.

Tags: Andrew Bumbalough Ben True Bernard Lagat Chris Derrick Evan Jager Galen Rupp Hassan Mead Jon Gugala Kevin Liao Max Siegel Meb Keflezighi Payton Jordan Ryan Hill

  • spirach2

    A lot of what you guys say is pretty goofy. (And that’s putting it nicely.)
    The idea that Ben True, for instance, is doomed to be a ‘perpetual bridesmaid’ is just stupid.
    Have you actually been watching him for the last three years?
    In case you haven’t noticed, he’s been improving faster than Derrick or Jager (which makes a lot of sense, considering he didn’t really dedicate himself to running until 2011), and I guess you closed your eyes at World Cross last year, or Jacksonville last month, or Boston last week.
    Everyone touts Derrick as America’s next great marathon hope. No one seems to notice that True keeps kicking his butt at longer stuff.
    His mile speed’s just as good as Derrick’s, too –maybe even a hair better.

    So far this year, he’s put up several stunning performances, in spite of a nagging hammy problem he says is one of the worst injuries he’s had.

    Derrick and Jager are awesome runners, and both still getting better. Lomong’s as good, but brutally unpredictable. Hill may not be that far back, and Bumbi and a handful of others are probably close behind him.
    But to downplay True is just stupid. He’s as good as the best of those guys right now, and in another year, he may very well be the top dog.

    You actually have it backwards: Derrick’s the one who may end up as perpetual bridesmaid.
    He comes out of college as the ‘Anointed One’ in U.S. distance running for the next ten years –the guy who’s supposed to pick up the mantle from Rupp.
    It may just turn out that he’s overtaken by the much-less-heralded True, and ends up chasing him till 2022 or so.

    If I had to bet, I’d take Ben FTW Sunday, ~ 13:05. Should be one hell of a race.

    • spirach2

      Like I said.

      • KlugerRD

        You’re a pretty sick SOB who even talks to himself

        Look tough guy,since you area too much of a coward to actually meet in person, I am taking screen shots of your over the top comments and getting you banned.

        If you new how to read there is something called terms and conditions and you have flagrantly violated them

        Want to prevent this, then agree to meet so I can better explain issues to you